Books have been published in English and Kannada languages. The English book with title Agricultural Price Policy in India with Special Reference to Karnataka (EVOLUTION OF PRICE PREDICTION MODEL) has been published during August 2003 and the Kannada title has been published during November 2006. Both the books are based on the author’s doctoral work entitled “A Critical Study Of Agricultural Price Policy in India with special reference to Karnataka.” Sri A.Ramaswamy I.A.S., the then Principal Secretary to Governoment of Karnataka, Co-Operation Department has written the Foreword.
The policies for agricultural product prices in India will be more complicated than the one prevailing all these days due to liberalization and globalisation. The agricultural policy development program of Karnataka indicates that the farmers in the state often complain that they get lower price for their produce. As per the policy, it is clear that the state would generally go by the overall demand and supply conditions.
The price trend analysis during 1990s does indicate that the commodity available for immediate sale will influence the price behaviour. In most cases, if the quantity produced is 5% in excess of the normal production, it will end up with more than 10% price depression. Similarly, in the event of achieving 5% increase in prices, the production should back up with 15% decrease to normal production. Since INDIA is a member of WTO, as per GATT it has a great responsibility of looking into the product specific subsidies, which are normally produced in the form of Minimum Support Price (MSP) to specific crops.
Agricultural Marketing being a State subject, it is the responsibility of the concerned States to take suitable measures for the socio economic welfare of their farmers. With this background the research work has been undertaken to develop theoritical model for price prediction to achieve equilibrium prices and minimize losses to farmers in the event of speculative price tendencies, and also to help policy makers to evolve implementing mechanism of readiness in market intervention operations.
Introductory Chapter I covers the importance and need for the study, objectives, coverage hypotheses, methodology and limitation of the study. Agricultural price policy in developing countries with special reference to India – an overview – has been presented in Chapter II. The modulus operandi of Agricultural price determination in India by Government of India has been elaborated in Chapter III. Chapter IV presents Karnataka’s Agricultural Marketing problems, the MSP operation and related marketing challenges. In Chapter V, special care has been taken to analyse the data using Computer software package to develop curve fit on x, y data with the help of mathematical equations. Equation co-efficient, correlation co-efficient and best fit are computed to develop suitable model for fixing up MSP for future period. Chapter VI contains the theoretical and policy implications of the findings. It also elaborates the corrective measures to be implemented vis-a-vis WTO policy implications. Chapter VII is an addendum to the original thesis under the caption Post Script that includes the empirical results of the prediction of weekly prices of selected agricultural commodities from January 2002 to April 2003 and goodness of fit. It also includes the monthly-predicted prices for the period 2003-2004 for the benefit of farmers and policy makers.
The book is basically to develop sound theoretical model with mathematical and statistical proof of predicting future prices to help Government in evolving appropriate price policies and related measures both for implementation and for safeguarding the interest of the farming community in India in general and Karnataka in particular. The results of the analysis also encompasses the demand for different agricultural commodities in the country in order to register equilibrium prices in the interests of the economy in agriculture sector. This book will also influence further research in the field of agricultural price policy not only for India but also worldwide.
As a fact profile the forecast prices for 2006-2007 published in the Kannada version of the book has been depicted below:
Prediction Vs Actual Prices 2006-07
|Commodity||Eat - P||Actual P(%)||Period|
|Paddy (F)||805||792 (-1.58)||4th Dec.|
|Paddy (C)||585||601 (2.74)||3rd Dec.|
|Maize||555||574 (3.42)||1st Nov.|
|Hy. Jowar||540||541 (0.19)||2nd Oct.|
|W.Jowar||760||796 (4.74)||3rd Jan.|
|Bajra||565||575 (1.77)||1st Nov.|
|Ragi||555||564 (1.62)||1st Nov.|
|Tot||1735||1766 (1.70)||3rd Dec.|
|Moong||2970||2916 (-1.8)||3rd Aug.|
|Urad||2880||3079 (6.91)||1st Sept.|
|Ground Nut||1660||1583 (-4.64)||3rd Oct.|
|S.Flower||1800||1934 (7.44)||2nd Jan.|
|Kapas||1900||2080 (9.47)||1st Jan.|
|Dry Chilli||4790||4587 (-4.24)||1st Mar.|
|Onion||370||364 (A .62)||1st Nov.|
|Potato||550||579 (5.27)||3rd Aug.|